The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes was a 4 for Central America.
The RealImpact™ scale takes into consideration much more than wind intensity, the only aspect of the storm used for the Saffir-Simpson scale. The RealImpact™ factors in rainfall, flooding, mudslides, storm surge, population density and economic losses in addition to wind damage.
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Rain poured down for days on the northern parts of Nicaragua and Honduras before shifting to eastern parts of Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico this past weekend.
A general 8-12 inches will fall in this zone, but a large pocket of 12-18 inches of rain is forecast from northern Honduras and Nicaragua, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 50 inches.
“This amount of rain will trigger major flash flooding and mudslides with the potential for catastrophic loss of life and tremendous damage,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned days earlier.
Some communities could be cut off for days due to washed-out roads and bridges or blocked by debris flows. Demands for rescue and recovery efforts, as well as food and medical supplies, will be great in the wake of the storm in the region.
Sara spent some time over land in southeastern Mexico Sunday into Sunday night, where it lost wind intensity and slipped from a tropical depression to a tropical rainstorm once again.
Steering breezes are forecast to pick up Sara and pull it over the Gulf of Mexico Monday, where it may spend two days before tracking into Florida during the middle of this week.
Even as a tropical rainstorm, Sara can still produce a storm surge near and south of landfall in the Florida Peninsula. While this may be relatively minor when compared to Helene, Milton and Debby from earlier this season, it can be significant where dunes and infrastructure remain compromised.
The most significant threat in Florida will be heavy rainfall that can swamp streets, highways and low-lying areas. How significant the rain and flooding are will depend on the intensity and forward speed of Sara.
Wind gusts can be strong enough to lead to sporadic power outages in the Florida Peninsula, there is some risk of isolated tornadoes as well.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, “the spin associated with Sara could produce a few isolated tornadoes. With any stronger downpours and thunderstorms, locally higher wind gusts over 60 mph would be possible.”
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Publish date : 2024-11-13 22:29:00
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